Ocean Freight
14 briefings, newest first.
- Voters Cut the Oil Price. Tariffs Stayed Put.
Brent fell 8.6% to $94.66 after the midterms, but diesel was still $6.292, ISM prices read 75.2, contract truckload rates hit a 52-week high and 178 China exclusions expire November 9.
- Growth Came Back, and Carriers Sent the Invoice
GDP grew 3.4% and the Fed held with two dissents for a hike, while C.H. Robinson's truckload prices rose 31.5%, diesel climbed to $6.352 and Asia–U.S. East Coast rates jumped 9% to $10,565.
- The Tariff Bill Is Shrinking. The Commodity Bill Isn't.
The Graham Act's 100% tariffs are waived and IEEPA refunds lift Hasbro and RTX, but P&G flags a $1.4B commodity hit, diesel rises 9.7¢ to $6.276, and reefer rejections reach 21.44%.
- The Inflation Is Stuck in the Middle.
Producer prices jump 1.3% in September, the most since March 2022, and intermediate goods run 14.1% above a year ago, while CPI hits 3.7% with core at 2.6%, retail sales ex-gas rise just 0.2%, and diesel slips to $6.179.
- Freight Cooled. Prices Kept Climbing.
Diesel drops 18.3¢ to $6.199 and Asia–Europe ocean slides, but ISM factory prices jump to 77.9, services prices hit 74.0, payrolls add just 29,000, and the Fed minutes point to another hike.
- The Inventory Arrived. The Confidence Left.
Wholesale inventories run 6.6% above a year ago as consumer confidence drops to 81.9, Target cuts 2,000 prices, diesel snaps its record streak at $6.382, and a 100% pharma tariff takes effect.
- The Tariff Clock Slowed Down. The Cost Clock Didn't.
The China truce slides to January 10, but diesel hits a record $6.529, the Fed hikes to 3.75–4%, and a 57.0 factory PMI shows supplier delays at a four-year high.
- Freight Inflation Just Became the Macro Story
Diesel sets an all-time record near $5.97, truckload spot rates rise across every equipment type, holiday parcel surcharges jump about 25%, and a Fed rate hike looks likely.
- The Constraint Moved Off the Balance Sheet and Onto the Map
Drought throttles the Panama Canal, a typhoon strands 139 ships off Shanghai, a trucking enforcement purge tightens capacity, and a new tariff wall goes up with Canada.
- The Inversion Flipped: Transpacific Rates Surge as Truckload Cools
Ocean rates climb to $4,526 per box with Shanghai–New York up 9%, while truckload spot rates roll over and flatbed posts its steepest drop since 2008.
- Peak Season Kicks the Door Down
Ocean spot rates jump 20–31% in a week, factory activity hits a four-year high, and truckload spot runs its hottest since 2022 as consumer confidence slips.
- The SCOTUS Tariff Earthquake Reshapes Trade Policy Overnight
A 10% Section 122 surcharge replaces the struck-down tariffs, ocean rates slide for a seventh week, and Apple announces its first U.S.-built Mac.
- Ocean Freight: The Great Unraveling
Ocean rates keep falling, Maersk posts a fourth-quarter loss, a return to the Red Sea threatens more overcapacity, and port volumes drop as front-loading runs out.
- Ocean Freight Collapse Exposes Structural Weakness
Container rates fall 10% in a week as Lunar New Year exposes overcapacity, Micron breaks ground on a $100 billion fab, and semiconductor tariffs advance.
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