In this issue6 sections
Washington and Beijing moved every China deadline to January this week. That gives you about 60 days, not a settlement. Last edition told you to price the 178 Section 301 exclusions at the full duty rate from November 10, because no extension had been published. On Tuesday the Federal Register published one: all 178 now run through 11:59 p.m. Eastern on January 9, 2027, “in light of ongoing discussions with China.” The same day USTR extended its suspension of port fees on China-linked vessels to January 10. The Commerce Department had already pushed the BIS Affiliates Rule suspension to January 10. Beijing matched it on Monday: its extra 24% tariff on U.S. goods stays suspended for two months while “a tariff of 10% will remain,” and its critical-minerals waivers also run to January 10. The calendar now has a single cliff, and costs kept moving under it. The first diesel reading after the election fell 16.5 cents to $6.127. Core consumer prices rose 0.3% for a third straight month, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a 50-basis-point hike “should be considered” if they did. Tender rejections sat at 12.95%, against a 12-month average of 8.18%. The extension bought time, not certainty. Companies that use the gap to re-source, re-file and re-bid will set their 2027 landed cost. Companies that wait for a third extension will have it set for them.
Retail & Consumer Spotlight: Prices Are Rising 0.3% a Month, and the Yardstick Is Gone
October CPI Came Without a Year-Over-Year Number
The October consumer price index rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis. “The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, as it did in September and August,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. The annual figure is missing this month. “BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations,” the release says, so “BLS cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are unavailable.” Anyone quoting you an annual inflation rate for October is estimating it.
The monthly figures are clear enough. Energy rose 0.7% after a 5.2% jump in September, and gasoline was up 1.0% on the month and 37.4% from a year earlier. Food rose 0.5%. Core goods rose 0.2%, apparel 0.1% and household furnishings 0.2%. Transportation services rose 0.8%. Three straight months of 0.3% core inflation works out to about 3.7% annualized. Goods are not driving it. Services are, and freight is one of those services.
The Fed Is Talking About 50 Basis Points
Waller spoke in London on Tuesday morning, hours before the release. “I am leaning toward supporting an increase in our policy rate of 25 basis points at the FOMC’s December meeting,” he said. If the October data matched the previous two months, he added, “then a stronger policy move may be needed. … In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting.” He also said, “Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take.” Core CPI came in at 0.3%, which meets his test. Governor Michelle Bowman said the same day that “Progress on lowering inflation has stalled over the past two years or so,” and that October’s CPI suggests 12-month core PCE inflation “likely moved up further to 3.3 percent.”
This matters most for the inventory you pulled forward this year. Every quarter you hold it, it costs more to finance. Rerun your 2027 carrying-cost assumptions at 25 and 50 basis points higher before you approve any more forward buys under the January window.
Shoppers Feel Poorer. Companies Are Cutting Network Cost.
The University of Michigan’s preliminary November sentiment index rose to 51.0 from 48.0, and year-ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.3% from 4.7%. Director Joanne Hsu said “About 57% spontaneously mentioned that their living standards have been eroded by high prices,” and “Despite this month’s improvement, sentiment is down 10% from February.” Hiring held up: October payrolls rose 165,000, and transportation and warehousing added 25,000, led by couriers and messengers.
Retailers are cutting distribution cost, not adding to it. Neighborhood Intelligence, the former Bed Bath & Beyond, is closing its Aberdeen, Maryland distribution center and moving the inventory to Dallas. CEO Marcus Lemonis said the company is reviewing its supply chain “to rip out big chunks of costs.” Last edition asked whether your tariff refunds stay in margin. On Holding answered for itself: it reaffirmed its full-year sales outlook, “now with U.S. tariff refunds included,” and CFO Frank Sluis said On “held full price discipline” across its markets. Set your holiday pricing on the 0.3% monthly run rate, not on headlines about energy relief. Keep refunds out of your 2027 base, because a refund only shows up once.
Global Logistics Pulse: Fuel Is Falling Into the Index. Capacity Isn’t.
Diesel: The Post-Election Drop Has Arrived
The Department of Energy’s November 9 average, released Tuesday, was $6.127 a gallon. That’s down 16.5 cents from the prior week and the first reading taken after the oil drop that followed the midterms. It is still $2.290 above a year ago. California fell to $7.897, the West Coast to $7.110 and the Midwest to $6.201, down 20.1 cents. The Rocky Mountain region fell the most, 23.9 cents to $6.206. On a surcharge table with a $3.50 base at 6 miles per gallon, the surcharge is now about 43.8 cents a mile, down from 46.5 cents last edition.
Oil kept falling into the week. Reuters reported Brent down 4.65% to $93.75 a barrel by midday Monday after “Trump said he was highly unlikely to order fresh attacks on Iran as long as talks to end the conflict progressed,” even as attacks continued on ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Last edition said to take the fuel savings through the index, not through a renegotiation, and that still holds. Check that your carriers’ surcharges reset on the November 9 reading. Spend your negotiating time on linehaul, which is rising.
Truckload: Linehaul Is Up a Third, and Fuel Is Hiding It
FreightWaves reported Tuesday that the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index “sits at 12.95 percent,” above “its trailing 12-month average of 8.18 percent,” though it “has also eased down from the mid-teens readings it hit over the summer.” DAT’s October 31–November 6 report had van spot at $3.11 a mile, up 7 cents, reefer at $3.70, up 10 cents, and flatbed at $3.65. Strip out fuel and van linehaul is $2.26, up 35% from a year ago, with reefer up 34% and flatbed up 31%. “Van and reefer rates trail only 2021 for early November,” DAT said. The reefer load-to-truck ratio jumped to 19.0 from 15.7.
A falling surcharge will make your all-in rate look flat through December while linehaul, the part carriers keep, climbs. Report fuel and linehaul separately in your freight dashboards this month. Lock in reefer capacity for the Thanksgiving-to-Christmas run now, before the ratio climbs further.
Ocean: Peak Prices, Off-Peak Volumes
Freightos’s November 10 update had Asia–U.S. West Coast down 1% and Asia–U.S. East Coast down 2%. Freightos wrote that “at $8,200/FEU to the West Coast and $9,700/FEU to the East Coast, prices are still at about peak levels,” and that “Slowing demand may be one factor in transpacific container rates easing slightly last week as significant carrier GRIs failed to materialize.” Asia–North Europe fell 5% to $3,400. As of midday Thursday Drewry had not posted its November 12 World Container Index, so the latest reading is November 5: $4,389 per 40-foot container, with a projected transpacific decline. Xeneta said Monday that Asia–U.S. West Coast spot rates in October were “343% above their February 28 level” and “just 14% below their pandemic-era record,” and that fuel surcharges on long-term contracts rose 42% to $820 per FEU.
The cargo behind those prices is thinning. NRF’s Global Port Tracker, released Monday, had September imports at 2.37 million TEU, up 12.6%, then forecast November up only 1.2% and December up 1.3%, and March 2027 down 11.2% to 1.92 million TEU. Ben Hackett said “new tariffs introduced in the second quarter prompted a renewed surge in imports beginning in May.” NRF’s Jonathan Gold said those “volumes have led to backups at some ports, particularly on the West Coast where cargo has sat for extended periods” waiting for rail. Last edition flagged the LA/Long Beach watchmen’s midnight Friday deadline. There was no strike. “The latest extension goes through Nov. 20,” Bloomberg reported via gCaptain, citing a Pacific Maritime Association statement. The contract covers about 250 security workers at terminals that handle roughly 85% of Long Beach cargo and a third of Los Angeles cargo. Spot rates near a record, falling volumes ahead and a $820 fuel surcharge line are the case for index-linked 2027 transpacific contracts. Don’t sign fixed rates at peak, and audit how your contract’s bunker clause will move as oil falls.
Rail and Air: The Intermodal Streak Is Back
AAR counted 298,369 U.S. intermodal units in the week ending November 7, up 11.0%. Last edition put the prior week’s +3.9% down to the BNSF flood closure, and this reading confirms that. In air, Freightos had China–U.S. rates up 3% to more than $8.00 a kilogram, already at last year’s high, a level 2025 didn’t reach until mid-December. Xeneta’s Niall van de Wouw said of October’s 6% demand growth, “It’s strong, but it’s not a ‘peak’ season, and time is quickly running out for volumes to shift higher.” Air is priced like peak season without peak-season volumes. Book the December air you know you need, and leave the rest on the water: intermodal has the capacity.
Strategic Sourcing Evolution: You Have 60 Days, Not a Deal
Every Deadline Now Lands on January 9–10
USTR’s notice, filed November 9 and published November 10, announces “the Trade Representative’s determination to further extend all 178 current exclusions,” which covers 164 general exclusions and 14 for solar manufacturing equipment, through 11:59 p.m. Eastern on January 9, 2027. “U.S. Customs and Border Protection will issue instructions on entry guidance and implementation,” it says, and “The Trade Representative may continue to consider further extensions or additional modifications as appropriate.” In a separate notice, the Section 301 maritime actions are “further suspended through 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on January 9, 2027,” so “no party will accrue liability for or be required to pay the fees on maritime transport services.” BIS’s rule says, “The suspension was set to end November 9, 2026. This final rule extends the suspension through January 10, 2027.”
Beijing moved in step. China Daily reported that the Commerce Ministry extended its suspension of measures against 11 U.S. entities on its unreliable entity list, and of dual-use export restrictions on 16 more, for two months, to implement “the consensus reached during the eighth round of China-US economic and trade consultations.” Reuters reported that China “will extend export-control waivers for certain critical minerals and related technologies until January 10, 2027,” and that its suspension of special port fees on U.S.-linked vessels runs to the same date.
Two things follow from that calendar. The first is that the exclusions expire on an entry date, not a sailing date. Transpacific transit plus the West Coast rail delays NRF describes means cargo that leaves Asia in late December may not be entered by January 9. Based on that, treat early-to-mid-December sailings as your real cutoff for anything that depends on an exclusion. The second is that two-month renewals are now routine, and each one could go either way. Plan for January 10 as a cliff and treat a third extension as upside.
The Section 301 Tool Is Getting Bigger, Not Smaller
Read one line in Beijing’s statement closely. Reuters reported that China “noted that the US side has repeatedly stated that it intends to use Section 301 tariffs to replace the tariffs.” Beijing is planning around the same durability last edition flagged. The China-plus-one alternative is under its own Section 301 review. USTR extended its investigation into Vietnam’s intellectual property practices by three months, saying “the determinations in the investigation will be made by no later than February 28, 2027.” If your diversification plan moves volume from China to Vietnam in 2027, you are trading one Section 301 exposure for one that is still pending. Price a Vietnam 301 scenario into any award you sign before March.
The Companies Building in the U.S. Are Planning for 2029, Not January
Capital decisions are running on a different clock from the truce. Honda announced Monday a $3 billion auto plant in Central Ohio, its fourth in the state, with more than 2,000 jobs and capacity of 240,000 vehicles a year. Production is set for 2029, “pending final government approvals,” and Ohio hybrid powertrain capacity rises 250%. Honda’s Bob Nelson said “we are making one of the most significant commitments in our history to position Honda for the next 50 years.” Mars said Tuesday it will invest about $1.4 billion in U.S. manufacturing and operations in 2027, its largest single year. “Ninety-four percent of the Mars products sold in the U.S. are made here,” CFO Claus Aagaard said. Factory payrolls rose 19,000 in October and have grown by 101,000 since December 2025.
Automation, the input those plants need most, is getting harder to buy across borders. China blocked SoftBank’s $5.4 billion purchase of ABB’s robotics business on November 4, and the companies are back in talks. Erik Nieves of Plus One Robotics said “all options are on the table.” Add last edition’s Section 232 robotics finding and both governments are now screening that trade. Politics won’t settle it soon: a Reuters/Ipsos poll found 62% of Americans support repealing the tariffs, while the Alliance for American Manufacturing’s Scott Paul called rolling back enforcement “simply because of who advanced them” “a serious mistake.” If you supply the Hondas and Marses, start qualifying U.S. capacity now on their 2029 timeline. If you buy automation equipment, build extra lead time into anything whose ownership now has to clear a U.S. or Chinese security review.
CBP Is Wiring the Importer Rule Into ACE
Last edition covered CBP’s foreign importer-of-record rule. This week CBP published the system changes behind it. CSMS #70409426 says CBP “will deploy the Foreign Importer of Record (IOR) Enhancement to the ACE Certification (CERT) environment on November 12, 2026,” “followed by deployment to the Production (PROD) environment on January 5, 2027.” Entry summaries gain new importer-of-record and power-of-attorney fields. Production goes live four days before the exclusions expire. Ask your broker this week whether they are testing in CERT. If your non-resident suppliers will lose informal-entry privileges, change your Incoterms before January, not during the same week as the tariff cliff.
📊 Numbers That Matter
Weekly Dashboard: Week of November 9–13, 2026
| Metric | Reading | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Section 301 China exclusions | All 178 extended through 11:59 p.m. ET Jan 9, 2027 | USTR, Federal Register (Nov 10) |
| China-linked port fees / BIS Affiliates Rule | Both suspended through Jan 9–10, 2027 | USTR, BIS, Federal Register |
| China countermeasures | Extra 24% tariff suspended two more months; 10% stays; critical-minerals waivers to Jan 10 | Reuters via AJOT; China Daily |
| CPI (Oct) | All items +0.4% m/m; core +0.3% (third straight); energy +0.7%; core goods +0.2%; transportation services +0.8%; no 12-month figure | BLS |
| Retail diesel (DOE weekly, Nov 9) | $6.127/gal, −16.5¢ WoW; +$2.290 YoY; California $7.897; Midwest $6.201 | EIA |
| Brent crude (Nov 9) | $93.75 at 12:04 p.m. EDT, −4.65% on the day | Reuters via Khaleej Times |
| Drewry WCI (Nov 5; Nov 12 not yet posted) | $4,389/40ft (−1%); Shanghai–LA $7,539; Shanghai–NY $9,303 | Drewry |
| Freightos FBX (Nov 10 update) | Asia–USWC ~$8,200 (−1%); Asia–USEC ~$9,700 (−2%); Asia–N. Europe $3,400 (−5%) | Freightos |
| NRF Global Port Tracker | Sept 2.37M TEU (+12.6%); Nov fcst 2.05M (+1.2%); Mar 2027 fcst 1.92M (−11.2%) | NRF / Hackett Associates |
| DAT spot (Oct 31–Nov 6) | Van $3.11/mi (+7¢); reefer $3.70 (+10¢); flatbed $3.65; van linehaul +35% YoY; reefer L/T 19.0 | DAT via AJOT |
| SONAR tender rejections (Nov 10) | 12.95% vs 8.18% trailing 12-month average | FreightWaves |
| Rail (week ending Nov 7) | U.S. intermodal 298,369 (+11.0%); carloads 227,914 (+1.3%); total 526,283 (+6.6%) | AAR |
| Air cargo | Freightos China–U.S. >$8.00/kg (+3%); Xeneta Oct spot $3.11/kg (+29% YoY), demand +6% | Freightos; Xeneta via Supply Chain Dive |
| Jobs (Oct) | Payrolls +165,000; unemployment 4.1%; transportation & warehousing +25,000; manufacturing +19,000 | BLS |
| Consumer sentiment (Nov prelim) | 51.0 (Oct 48.0); 1-yr inflation expectations 4.3% (Oct 4.7%) | University of Michigan |
| U.S. manufacturing commitments | Honda $3B Ohio plant, 2,000+ jobs; Mars ~$1.4B U.S. investment in 2027 | Honda; Mars |
Looking Ahead
- November 13: October PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET
- November 17: DOE diesel update for November 16; October retail sales at 8:30 a.m. ET
- November 18: Opening comments due at the STB on the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger
- November 18–19: APEC leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen; a Trump–Xi meeting is the likeliest place for anything beyond January 10
- November 20: LA/Long Beach watchmen’s contract extension expires; University of Michigan final November sentiment
- December 8–9: FOMC meeting; Waller says 50 basis points “should be considered”
- January 5, 2027: CBP foreign importer-of-record changes go live in ACE production
- January 9–10, 2027: Section 301 exclusions, port-fee suspensions, the BIS Affiliates Rule suspension and China’s countermeasure suspensions all expire unless extended
- January 12, 2027: Comments due to USTR for the 2027 USMCA joint review
- February 28, 2027: Deadline for USTR’s Section 301 determinations on Vietnam
The Bottom Line
Last week’s November cliff is now one January cliff, and every cost that isn’t tied to a deadline kept moving underneath it.
Treat January 9 as a sailing-date problem, not a calendar date. The 178 exclusions expire on entry, and transpacific transit plus West Coast rail delays mean the practical cutoff is early-to-mid December. Decide now which exclusion-dependent SKUs to pull forward, and check that the financing cost still works if the Fed moves 50 basis points in December.
Split fuel from linehaul in every freight number you report. Diesel fell 16.5 cents and will keep pulling surcharges down. Van linehaul is up 35% and tender rejections are 12.95%. If your dashboard shows only the all-in rate, it will tell you that freight is getting cheaper while carriers are actually raising rates.
Build the 2027 sourcing plan on Section 301, not on the truce. Beijing expects Section 301 to replace the tariffs it is suspending, and Vietnam’s own Section 301 determination is due February 28. Honda and Mars are committing capital on 2029 timelines. Your supplier awards should assume Section 301 duties stay, and any China-plus-one move should be priced against a Vietnam 301 scenario.
Strategic question for supply chain leaders: Every major China deadline now falls on January 9–10, two months out, with no deal behind it. Does your plan treat January 10 as a cliff to be ready for, or as a date that will be extended again, and what would it cost you if you guessed wrong?
